The situation
There are more than $100 trillion in assets at risk from “harvest now, decrypt later (HNDL)” strategies of bad actors.
“Quantum Technology for Securing Financial Messaging” was published in July 2024 by the Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C), and highlighted this point. Assets at risk include digitally signed documents, ownership records held digitally, digital social security numbers, government and defence secrets. The “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy is based on the expectation of achieving decryption when cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQC) become available. Expert opinion on when CRQC will be available varies, but some expect it to be within a few years. Many of the data protected by encryption have “shelf lives” of years, if not decades, and even if all the banks, financial institutions, governments, and network operators started tomorrow to upgrade to more secure networks, that process could also take many years. This translates to HNDL being a very serious threat right now, which is the conclusion reached strongly by QED-C.
Seagate estimates 175 ZB of data will be generated annually by 2025. About 50% of this will reside in public cloud environments. As a result, the $13B p.a. data-centre security market is growing at 35% CAGR to 2026 in North America (Markets & Markets), driven by emerging regulation and increasing risk of financial and reputational loss.
Gartner estimate that 75% of enterprises have at least some fibre optic cabling in a publicly accessible location. Most data are sent optically these days via fibre optic cables. Equipment worth a few hundred dollars can be purchased on eBay to tap into fibre optic circuits. Our leading data centre partners emphasise that the most vulnerable parts of the optical links are the last mile.
QED-C advocated for immediate action against this threat, on two fronts. First, implement post quantum cryptography. NIST published three such algorithms in August 2024. Second, combine this with an unspoofable physical layer protection technology. Quantum Link Verification is exactly that.